Dump Mike Ferguson (NJ7)

Since the new federal campaign finance laws came in place it's been pretty hard for the state parties to coordinate with House campaigns. They are limited in how much money they can spend for a federal campaign, and any poll worth taking would be far more than the limit. So while the State Democratic Committee might take polls on Linda Stender's campaign against Mike Ferguson (R-NJ7), they can't share the poll results with the Stender for Congress folks.

But that doesn't mean that the State Democratic Chair can't talk to the newspapers and throw out some hints to everyone. Assemblyman and State Democratic Chair Joe Cryan -- who represents part of the 7th -- talked to the Gannet chain the other day:

This year there is little drama in 12 of the 13 congressional races in New Jersey. Five Republicans and six Democrats are expected to win re-election. Democrat Albio Sires is expected to easily win the 13th District vacated by U.S. Senate candidate Robert Menendez.

According to Assemblyman Joseph Cryan, D-Union, chairman of the Democratic State Committee, Stender is within 3 percentage points of her opponent.

"Ferguson has never polled above 50 percent, and for an incumbent that's not good," said Cryan.

Ferguson can't break 50 percent in Stender's internal polls, the independent Consituent Dynamic poll, and the National Republican's own poll. And now maybe in another one? That's not good for a three term incumbent.

Put that together with a live audience laughing at Mike Ferguson spontaneously at a debate today, and Linda's crushing closing statement, and you have a race that needs people.

Call the Stender for Congress campaign today at 908-322-1996 to volunteer for some of the next 8 days.

Posted by admin at 07:12 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Constituent Dynamics released polls for a bunch of Congressional races around the country. Among these races is NJ7 between incumbent Mike Ferguson (R-NJ7) and Linda Stender (D-NJ), which is a virtual tie at 49/46 respectively among likely voters.

With the margin of error of 3.1 percent that is a tie.

Constituent Dynamics does their polling via robocalls that people respond to via push buttons and that method is not too common. Still, with a sample of 1022 likely voters from October 8-10 it's gotta be close.

Reasons this poll may be more accurate today than the internal Stender poll that had the race at 47/40:

• This poll was taken after the Mark Foley revelations, whereas the internal was mostly before the revelations;
• The internal Stender poll also had less than half the sample, and a margin of error higher than five percent according to reports;
• No disparaging either the Stender or their pollsters, but this is an independent poll.

There's some interesting and unexpected numbers -- beyond the two point spread -- in here if you go through them.

• In perhaps the best news, Stender is leading with likely voting independents, carrying 47 percent to Ferguson's 45 percent;
• In perhaps the worst news, Ferguson is leading with likely voting women, carrying 49 percent to Stender's 46 percent;
• Democrats like Stender better than Republicans like Ferguson. She gets 83 percent of the Dems and Ferguson gets just 78 percent from the GOP.
• Stender also does better with Republicans than Ferguson does with Demcorats. She gets 17 percent of the GOP vote while Ferguson gets 14 percent of the Democratic vote.
• Stender crushes Ferguson among people aged 45 to 64 (52%/43%), but does poorly for voters 44 and under (41%/51%), 65 to 74 (43%/57%) and 74 an above (46%/53%);
• Bush has a 40 percent approval, 50 percent disapproval.

I think the place where Stender needs to improve most is with women under 44. Choice and the Iraq should be a big mover in this population, and that can make the difference.

What do you think?

Posted by admin at 08:32 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

OK, this falls into the area of silly polls that really don't mean a lot, but Linda Stender is kicking Mike Ferguson's Butt in the Facebook Election Pulse, with 58.97 percent of the NJ7 friends to Ferguson's 40.12 percent. Libertarian Darren Young has 0.91 percent of the friends.

You can get a Facebook account and become a friend of Linda's, too!

Posted by admin at 03:19 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)

The following letter was published in the Courier News on Friday, September 29 2006.

Republicans sink in unethical mire

Yes, I am a Republican of long standing, and it is not easy to write this letter. I have had enough of the rape of this country by Washington and Big Business.

However, with unethical liberal Democrats and ethical conservative Republicans I am truly concerned. In my mind, ethics has to do with power, control, lying, cheating and stealing by individuals, government and business. The greatness of our country was the strong, honest, hard-working middle class. Yes, the economy is booming for the haves and the upper middle class. The rest of the country is faced with lower incomes, unreasonable prices, debt, usury, identity theft, taxation and health costs.

If we sit down and tally the money those unethical Democrats have gobbled up, we will find it is peanuts compared with that involving ethical Republicans. The Republicans, including Mike Ferguson and Tom Kean Jr., support business, the bigger the better, and favors for the haves. They will be asked to support President Bush's ill-conceived plan to return control of world oil to Houston as it was until the '70s. Yes, they may get us a piece of pork such as removing the mercury, which may never happen, or finish the Green Brook flood control, like New Orleans.

We had a famous middle-of-the-road Republican, Mrs. Whitman. We are assured that Tom Kean Jr. and Mike Ferguson will be of the same ilk. Mrs. Whitman reduced the income tax, a tax dedicated to education. The responsibility for education was transferred to the homeowners with questionable assessments. Education spending for status and parity has grown leaps and bounds to the point of taking small homes to increase tax receipts.

Utilities are billed in such a way as to make the poor, the elderly and those trying to conserve pay more per gallon of water, water that may not be fit to drink, than the haves pay. The interest on a small debt can be more than 60 percent APR, while large favored debts are about 20 percent or even less. There are discounts and rebates for some, but not all.

Now there is a big problem. For some time, all people were encouraged to register and vote, and register they did. How does the minority party solve the problem? Rig the ballot boxes, of course. Mind you, not by a lot, just enough to claim victory. It could easily happen here.

If I were you, I would keep my eye on the ethical Conservatives this go-round. Most likely, I will return to the party when it gives up carrying the Bible in one hand and death-dealing cluster bombs in the other while making large profits for big business on others' suffering.

CHARLES B. MOBUS
Warren

Posted by admin at 07:56 AM | Permalink | Comments (0)

Charlie Cook runs one of the most reliable and believed in political newsletters, and is particularly famous for handicapping races. His data is usually highly proprietary and campaigns pay a lot of money to get their hands on it. When a candidate moves within Cook's categories, it is a sign that something is changing and usually considered a big deal.

Mike Ferguson has been moved from being safe to being in play. Since the February 18, 2005 House Summary Ferguson has been off Cook's radar, but the Friday the 13th, 2006 House Summary he was put back into play. It's still in the Likely Republican column, but still not a slam dunk.

With some work from Blue 7th and our candidates, we can move him into to Lean Republican column, then into the Toss Up column, and finally into Retirement in January 2007.

Why? Because New Jersey's 7th Congressional District is not necessarily as Republican as folks make it out. NJ7 has a Cook Report Partisan Voting Index of just R+1 which means it voted for Bush one percent more than that country did as a whole. Since Bush only got 51 percent, that means he got 52 percent in the NJ7. Roll Call, the newspaper of Capitol Hill, reported in May 2002 that even in the newly redistricted NJ7 Al Gore won 51 percent of the vote.

Voters here have demonstrated that they will vote for a Democrat when given an opportunity, and when given a choice. Here at Dump Mike and the Blue 7th PAC it is our job to present the voters with enough information that they decide it is time to make a choice.

Posted by admin at 07:27 PM | Permalink | Comments (0)